Professor Charles Franklin explains the latest poll results from Marquette University Law School for the gubernatorial recall election. Conducted May 23-26, 2012, the new numbers put Gov. Scott Walker up by seven points over Milw. Mayor Tom Barrett, 52 to 45 percent, respectively.

The recall election is June 5 and turnout is going to be the biggest variable, Franklin said, pointing to how little movement there’s been in polling numbers since MU started this polling project in January.

“The takeaway is how stable things have been over the year,” Franklin pointed out. “We started in January at a 51-46 split, but today there’s hardly any change. Any dips are just sampling noise, but not representative of a big trend or movement.”

Check out Patch’s daily Recall Roundup. We’re delivering summaries of recall events and stories every day until the June 5 election.

Voter Turnout Estimated at 60 to 65 percent for June 5 Recall Election

The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board is predicting that between 60 and 65 percent of the voting age population – or approximately 2.6 to 2.8 million people – will cast regular and absentee ballots for the Tuesday, June 5 Recall Election.

“Wisconsin has never had a statewide recall election, which makes predicting turnout difficult,” said Kevin Kennedy, director and general counsel of the G.A.B.  “We typically look at history for guidance in predicting turnout. We expect turnout for this election to be much higher than the 49.7 percent turnout in the 2010 General Election for Governor, but not as high as the 69.2 percent turnout in the 2008 General Election for President of the United States.”

Historically, the highest voter turnout in a November gubernatorial election in the last 50 years was 52.4percent in 1962.  The highest turnout in the past decade was 50.9 percent in 2006. Wisconsin’s 2011 voting age population is 4,352,762 people.  Statistics on past voter turnout and current voter registration are available at http://gab.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics.

The number of Wisconsin residents who have already requested absentee ballots or voted absentee in the clerk’s office for the recall election continues to climb, said Elections Division Administrator Nat Robinson.

As of noon today, at least 130,391 absentee ballots had been issued by Wisconsin’s local election officials who track them using the Statewide Voter Registration System (SVRS), compared to 113,558 by midday Friday, May 25, Robinson said. Clerk’s offices in some larger cities were open for in-person absentee voting over the Memorial Day weekend.

To give that number some context, a total of 68,000 absentee ballots were tracked in SVRS for the May 8 recall primary. Just over one-third of municipalities track absentee ballots in SVRS, including all the state’s large cities.

There were a total of 230,744 absentee ballots cast in the November 2010 General Election for Governor, and a total of 633,610 cast in the November 2008 General Election for President. These numbers include all ballots, not just those tracked in SVRS, and included an extra week of absentee voting.

As many as 75 percent of all absentee ballots are typically cast in the clerk’s office, with the remainder being delivered by mail. The percentage of voters voting via absentee ballot jumped from about 6 percent in 2000, to about 12 percent in 2004, to more than 21 percent in 2008, then dropped to 10 percent in 2010.

In-person absentee voting in the clerk’s office runs through 5 p.m. or the close of business on Friday, June 1, whichever is later. Some clerks are offering extended hours to handle demand. Voters can find their local clerk’s office address and phone number on Voter Public Access: vpa.wi.gov.

The deadline for clerks to receive a request for an absentee ballot by mail is 5 p.m. Thursday, May 31. Voters who request an absentee ballot using a flier they received in the mail should double check the clerk’s mailing address in the event of an error, Kennedy said.

Mailed absentee ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, and must be received by the clerk by 4 p.m. the Friday after the election. All properly-cast absentee ballots will counted, regardless of how close the election is.

Gov. Scott Walker Highlights Jobs in Stop at Waukesha Factory

Gov. Scott Walker touted yet again his goals for job creation in Wisconsin as he toured Husco International, a manufacturing plant that is rebounding after drastic cuts to its workforce in previous years.

Visiting with employees ranging from line workers to top executives, Walker campaigned at the Waukesha factory where he was welcomed by Chairman Gus Ramirez.

Husco is prepared for job growth in the next few years, Ramirez said, but having a “business friendly environment” will be key to increasing jobs.

“Business creates opportunity. Business creates jobs, not government,” Ramirez said.

Read the full story here on Patch.

Tom Barrett Aggressively Goes After Scott Walker in First Debate

There’s no question that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who is trailing in the most recent polls, came out swinging against Gov. Scott Walker in a televised debate Friday night.

But whether he landed enough punches to sway enough voters in the June 5 recall election remains to be seen.

Read about the debate and join the more than 300 comments here on Patch.

GOP Supporters Rally With Walker, Louisiana Governor in Waukesha

With Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal at his side, Gov. Scott Walker Thursday blamed Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett for the city’s high taxes, poverty, high unemployment and flawed crime statistics.

“I think it is time he focused on fixing Milwaukee, not trying to screw up the rest of the state,” Walker said while rallying Republican supporters in Waukesha.

Read the full story here on Patch.